How To Steal a Title on Draft Day

The stolen base is that elusive stat that very likely will go a long way to determining whether or not you win your fantasy league this year. I have never been an advocate of dumping a category during the draft, and that goes double for SB's. Unlike saves, another category often ignored in drafts, stolen bases don't come into the league via the waiver wire. If you are going to build a team that will compete in the stolen base category, you will need to find your speed at the draft table.

Speed always comes at a price come draft day, so it is no surprise that the elite speedsters and 20/20 players disappear from draft boards in the opening rounds. Take a look at the players projected to steal 10 bases or more and you will see that about half of those players (40-50 hitters) will likely be drafted in the first half of drafts.

In most leagues there is usually one or two owners who load up on SB's and one or two who neglect or "punt" the category. Then there will be everyone else in the league grouped in the middle where the difference between 10th place and 3rd place might be 20-40 sb's over the course of the season.

Your goal should be to finish no worse than 3rd place in SB's this year. Take a look at last years standings to give you an idea of what to shoot for - but in mixed leagues using standard rotisserie lineups (14 active hitters) - 140-150 sb's is a nice range to shoot for. Let's assume for arguments sake that you have drafted your fair share of speed early in the draft, that would be about 4 speed guys in the first 12 Rd's, and about 80-100 sb's. That means you will need to find at least another 40-50 sb's the rest of the way.

The key is to try and draft a lineup that will help pad your stolen base totals without rostering players who drag you down in other categories. You know the guys I am talking about: Willy Tavarez, Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn are all names you will see drafted by owners looking to grab those 40-60 sb's with one pick. But these players often offer so little in the other 5 categories that the damage they inflict often negates the one positive attribute they bring to the table.

Now, you can put all your eggs in a speed demon like Tavarez's basket or you can spread the risk and draft sources of cheap speed later in drafts while still providing enough pop to keep you competetive across the board. Here is a list of players to target in the middle and end of drafts to help you steal those precious points in the stolen base category. ADP's are from Mock Draft Central's current list.

• C - Mike Napoli - LAA - ADP 156 - '09 Outlook: 8-12 SB - Besides offering tremendous power upside, Napoli also is the only Catcher outside of Russell Martin with the potential to add double-digit sb's for your team. He is an injury risk, which explains why he is often rostered later in drafts. But if you are waiting on the position or looking for the ideal #2 Catcher, Mike Napoli is the name to remember.
• 1B - Gabriel Sanchez - FLA -ADP Undrafted - '09 Outlook: 10-15 SB - First base is not the position to go looking for SB help. Only Lance Berkman stole more than 10 bases from the position last year. That being said in deeper leagues, if you get to the end of your draft, Sanchez makes a nice end-game SB gamble for your bench.
• 2B - Rickie Weeks - MIL - ADP 222 - '09 Outlook: 20-30 SB - Weeks' disappointing 2008 has him falling in drafts to the point where his power/speed combo and upside potential makes him undervalued this year . If you can roster him as your MI, even better.
  
• SS - Elvis Andrus - TEX - ADP 299 - '09 Outlook: 30-40 SB - The Rangers believe in Andrus' ability enough to have moved Michael Young to 3B this off season. He has been a trendy pick in expert leagues, such as the NFBC, but it is very likely here will be there for the taking late in many leagues. If you are going to target a one category speedster late - make it a MI and not an OF.
• 3B - Alex Gordon - KC - ADP 158 - '09 Outlook: 10-15 SB - The shine is off the former can't miss prospect, but if you miss out on David Wright, my advice is to wait and set your sights on Gordon right around Rd 10. The speed he brings to the table makes him at least as valuable as Garrett Atkins, who is being drafted 70 picks higher. If you somehow miss out on Gordon, Mark Reynolds can be a fallback plan, but he provides less speed and is a BA liability.
• MI - Felipe Lopez - ARI - ADP 317 - '09 Outlook: 15-20 SB - The MI position is a place where most fantasy owners will try to shore up their team speed later in drafts. Kaz Matsui, Alexi Casilla, Cliff Barmes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Castillo, Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett and Emmanuel Burriss are others who will provide cheap speed from this spot. I like Lopez the best because he's leading off in Arizona, and there is at least double digit HR potential in his bat.
• CI - Josh Fields - CHW - ADP 332 - '09 Outlook: 10-15 SB - Look, Fields should be a reserve player on your roster if you draft him since he hasn't proved he can be the everyday guy. He is also a major BA risk. But he has displayed good speed in AAA to go along with better than average major league power. As nice guy to target as insurance if you draft a Chipper Jones or Ryan Zimmerman as your starting 3B.
• OF - Adam Jones - BAL - ADP 174 - '09 Outlook: 15-25 SB - Jones will be hitting in the 2 hole this season for Baltimore. Brian Roberts in front and Nick Markakis behind. He has already snagged 7 bases this spring and announced that he will be more aggressive on the base-paths this year.
  
• OF - Fred Lewis - SF - ADP 225 - '09 Outlook: 18-23 SB - Lewis is one of those players that help win titles. He has the LF job all to himself this season and is recovered from the foot injury that slowed him up down the stretch last year. He'll chip in at least 10-15 hr's as a bonus.
  
• OF - Elijah Dukes - WASH - ADP 246 - '09 Outlook: 13-23 SB - Dukes is a risky pick, I won't lie. He has been injury prone and his emotional problems are well documented. All this has done is keep his price reasonable. But if you are feeling lucky - few OF's in this range offer the 30/30 upside of Dukes. Of course that means a full season of a healthy, happy and motivated Dukes.
  
• OF - Cameron Maybin - FLA - ADP 277 - '09 Outlook 25-35 SB - Lastings Milledge's stock keeps rising by the day. He no longer qualifies as undervalued. Maybin's value is still being held down by his rookie status. But the Marlins have inserted him in the lead off spot, moving Hanley Ramirez down to third. Even if he struggles at times, 10 HR's and 20 SB's seem certain for the jewel of the Miguel Cabrera trade.
• OF - Jordan Schafer - ATL - ADP Undrafted - '09 Outlook 15-20 SB - Schafer at this point is potentially a steal of any draft. The Braves prospect has won the CF job in Atlanta. The Braves traded Josh Anderson to Detroit so the job is Schafer's. He brings power/speed skills to the table and will be given every chance to succeed this year.

You get the idea - don't go for the one category guys anymore - grab multiple guys who help you across the board. Some other names to consider: 2B Chris Getz, SS Mike Aviles, Of Coco Crisp, OF Randy Winn, OF David DeJesus, OF Daniel Murphy, OF Colby Rasmus, OF Chris Dickerson, OF Felix Pie, OF Ryan Spillborghs and OF Shin-Soo Choo.

Around the Majors: D-Train on DL with anxiety disorder.

Dontrelle Willis, a former 22-game winner, was placed on the DL due to an anxiety disorder.

Willis said the diagnosis came after follow-up blood tests showed something of concern. Doctors told him that the condition is treatable and that they'll start him on a regimen.

"I'm not crazy", Willis said "though my teammates might think that I'm crazy." He went 0-2 with a 9.38 ERA in eight appearances with the Tigers last season following his blockbuster trade to the Tigers the previous off season. Despite making adjustments to his delivery, the southpaw continued to struggle this spring. Willis allowed 15 runs (12 earned), 17 hits and seven walks in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings. " No word on if the Tigers will provide any help for the anxiety that Willis gave to his fantasy owners last year. Elsewhere around the majors:

• Angels ace John Lackey received a cortisone shot aimed at reducing the inflammation in his strained forearm.
• The Washington Nationals addressed their logjam in the OF by placing Willy Mo Pena on waivers.
• The Blue Jays are very concerned with B.J. Ryan's loss of velocity despite seemingly being 100 percent healthy. His velocity has varied between 83-86 m.p.h., way down from last year. If you own Ryan, you need to look at the possible replacements should he need to stay behind to build up his velocity. My choice would be Scott Downs.
• Bill Madden of the Daily News wrote today about the fast rising Yankee SS prospect who may push Derek Jeter to CF as soon as next season.
• Brett Gardner has officially won the Yankees center field job.
• Hopefully if you spent a high pick on the Cub's Carlos Marmol, you were smart enough to draft Kevin Gregg many rounds later. If you didn't you probably don't want to hear about how Pinella just named Gregg the new closer.
• The Dodgers Chad Billingsley had no set backs today and is on track for his first start on April 8th.
• Brewers' closer Trevor Hoffman played catch today for the first time since March 20th, but still seems destined to start the season on the DL. Carlos Villaneuva would likely step in a the closer were Hoffman to miss any time. I drafted Villanueva in the end-game of my NFBC draft for just this situation.
  

Around the Majors:Tejada gets slap on the wrist

Miguel Tejada received a year of probation and 100 hours of community service, in addition to a $5,000 fine for lying to Congress about performance-enhancing drugs. Tejada briefly addressed the court, "I apologize to the Congress, to the court, to all the fans of baseball and especially the kids," Tejada said quietly. The sentence was tied to Rafael Palmeiro, who implicated Tejada as a way to explain away his positive test for steroids in 2005. Palmeiro said that Tejada had given him a B-12 shot, which is believed by some to be a steroid masker. Other news from around the Majors:

• The Atlanta Braves sent top prospects Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward to their Minor league camp on Thursday.
• Emilio Bonafacio seems like a lock to be on the Florida Marlins Opening Day roster. He may have even played himself into a regular job at 3B if Gaby Sanchez isn't ready at 1B. Jorge Cantu would seemingly slide across the diamond opening up starts for Bonafacio at the hot corner.
• Angels C Mike Napoli will test his surgically repaired shoulder for the first time this spring on Friday. If you drafted him early this year (like I did), you will be waiting anxiously for the reports out of Angels camp. Napoli provides tremendous power upside from the C position, but health has always been an issue. He need to take the next step in his rehab to increase his chances of making the team out of ST, where his power bat would at the very least give him some DH at bats right away.
• Angels SP John Lackey is experiencing some forearm tightness. While he says it is nothing to worry about, it has to be noted that he missed the first 6 weeks of the season last year with a forearm injury.
• The Detroit Tigers are starting to face the economic reality that has engulfed the entire city. There have already been internal discussion on what to do with Dontrelle Willis and the $22 million that he is owed for 2009 and 2010.
• The entire city of Milwaukee, not to mention countless fantasy leaguers are concerned about Ryan Braun's injury status. After seeing him struggle down the stretch with a similar injury last year, we understand.
• Cincy's Johnny Cueto looks ready to improve upon last year's mini-breakout. He simply dominated the Red Sox yesterday as he faced the minimum 18 batters in his six innings of work. He struck out 5 in all and was so efficient with his pitches that after his outing he was sent to the bullpen to throw 20 more pitches just to get his work in.
• The Denver Post's Patrick Saunders says Todd Helton's power was the biggest surprise of Rockies camp for him.
• CC Sabathia was not only named as the Opening Day starter for the Yankees, but it was also announced that he will pitch in the Yankees home opener on April 16 as the Yankees open their new ballpark.
  

NFBC Journal: Main Event Roster

Okay - here is the rest of my Main Event roster. I will be doing a more in depth look at the entire draft, breaking it down pick by pick. I'll delve more deeply into the thought process behind each pick as I try to build a team to win not only my individual league - but also the $100,00 overall title. For those interested in just a quick look, here is the rest of my team and what round I picked them at:

C - Ryan Doumit, Pirates (7)
C - Mike Napoli, Angels (11)
1B- Chris Davis, Rangers (4)
2B- Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (24)
SS- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (1)
3B- Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres (16)
MI- J.J. Hardy, Brewers (8)
CI- Kendry Morales, Angels (18)
OF- Matt Kemp, Dodgers (2)
OF- Nick Markakis, Orioles (3)
OF- Cameron Maybin, Marlins (13)
OF- Rick Ankiel, Cardinals (15)
OF- Felix Pie, Orioles (22)
UT- Kosuke Fukodome, Cubs (27)
SP - Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (6)
SP - Brett Myers, Phillies (9)
SP - Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks (12)
SP - Johnny Cueto, Reds (14)
SP - Jair Jurrjens, Braves (17)
SP - Paul Maholm, Pirates (19)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox (5)
RP - Brian Fuentes, Angels (10)
RP - Dan Wheeler, Rays (21)
BN - Colby Rasmus (20), Matt LaPorta (28), Dallas McPherson (26), Pedro Alvarez (30)
Kenshin Kawakami (23), Jorge De La Rosa (29), Carlos Villanueva (25)

NFBC Journal: The Main Event

This past Saturday 390 Fantasy Baseball players converged on 4 cities (Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando) to simultaneously draft their teams for this years upcoming National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Players compete individually within their 15 team leagues and then compete for the Grand Prize of $100,000 against the other 389 entrants.

This was my first year participating in the Main Event, and I would be drafting here in my hometown of Manhattan at the ballroom of the Sheraton on 52nd St. That's right, home cooking before the big event. Needless to say the biggest challenge was tempering my excitement and getting a good night sleep on Friday.

My preparation for this year began early in December, when I was chosen to participate in a Champions Draft for Fantasy Sports magazine. Since then I had also done a 30 rd slow draft, a 20 team mixed league draft and a final NFBC Satellite league on March 14th. I knew the player pool, knew who I was targeting and had constructed for myself a fairly elaborate draft tool/sheet to take in with me.

My sheet had a section devoted to Player Rankings, with Tiers and $ values. Next to that was a list I created which I called my ADP/Position Scarcity Report. Here I again ranked players at various positions, but also incorporated the most recent ADP data available to NFBC drafters. The goal of this list in unison with my Rankings list would be to help me gauge and exploit pockets of value throughout my draft. In the upper section of my sheet I had an up to date Depth Chart for all MLB teams next to a Roster Tracker for the 15 teams in my league.

In addition to my sheet I had 1 magazine, Rotowire's, for quick look ups of any players I needed to do some quick research on. I chose this mag, because it listed it's player write-ups in alphabetical order, a must for quick searching. Also, they had previews of 1,500 players - more than just about any magazine in the marketplace.

I also had another chart, which broke the draft down into 5 sections, looking at 6 rds at a time. Here I listed players using the ADP data available, with color codes to help me at a glance identify which positions might be more heavily targeted at certain points. It would also help me identify certain players that were rising and falling in relation to their pre-draft ADP's. Lastly, I had a clipboard, with my own personal Roster Worksheet. After picking a player, you enter his name and projections and work toward you pre draft goals/targets in the 5x5 categories.

I arrived early, and entered the draft room. We were in the ballroom at the Sheraton and the room was already buzzing with excitement. Eight leagues would be drafting here in NY, with another 18 happening simultaneously in the other 3 cities. Las Vegas had the largest room, with 11 teams I believe, Chicago had 4 leagues, Orlando 2 and the NFBC even added 1 Online league this year to the Main Event. Everything was very well organized and our New York coordinator Tom Kessinich had everything under control. I found my U-shaped draft table, and took my spot at #8, smack dab in the middle. I introduced myself to the guys sitting to my right and left and proceeded to unpack my stuff and lay it all out. Needless to say, my elaborate set-up garnered more than a few looks from my league mates. Just as planned. Yes I was new to the competition, but I was ready to rumble! I had made the decision early on to forgo my laptop, mainly because the NFBC doesn't allow plug-ins. But, I was still surprised that I didn't see more computers. It would seem that the NFBC has more Old-school pen and paper guys than I was anticipating.

Okay, everything was ready to go. I started going over my strategy and somewhat scripted attack plan for the first few rounds. At #8, I had a good idea of who would be available to me and that initial pick would go a long way to determining who I chose in the next few rds. In my mind my choices would be Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira and Ian Kinsler. There are many different plans of attack in the NFBC - and where you pick in the first rd helps narrow it down.

My goal was to draft 5 category guys with my first 3 picks. So for my plan, Teixeira was out. That left Rollins and Kinsler. SS and 2B. I really liked them both. They both brought power and speed to the table at scarce positions. Kinsler slightly more power and Rollins more speed.
For me the deciding factor was reliability and injury risk. Who was more reliable and less of an injury risk. That led me to stick to my pre-draft plan and select Jimmy Rollins as my first pick in this years draft. Now I'd just have to get the rest of the guys I wanted to make it all work.

This Party Has Officially Ended

With those words, typed into his blog 38pitches, Curt Schilling announced his retirement from MLB after an illustrious 20 year career. He joins Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina or the list for what could be and interesting class for induction to the Hall of Fame in 2014. Other news around the majors:

• The Florida Marlins finally got their stadium deal passed. The team is slated to move into their new digs for the 2012 season.
• The Cleveland Indians demoted LHP Jeremy Sowers today, leaving LHP's Scott Lewis, Aaron Laffey and Zach Jackson to compete for the 5th Starters job. Also of note, OF Matt LaPorta was sent to AAA while prospect Trevor Crowe remains in camp and may still have a shot to make the team as a 5th OF.
• We wrote about Shawn Hill getting released by the Nationals recently. Well he couldn't have asked for a better landing spot. The San Diego Padres signed Hill to a minor league deal and he might be the front runner for the 5th spot in their rotation. NL-only owners should keep tabs on Hill, as Petco Park is a great place to jump start a flaggin career. Just ask Randy Wolf.
• Lastings Milledge was one of the very trendy picks this weekend at the NFBC. His owners will be very happy with the news that he will now be the leadoff hitter for your Washington Nationals.
• David Price may yet be headed for AAA, but he had his best start of the spring on Sunday.
• We should have a decision from Lou Pinella as to who will win the team's closer job, Carlos Marmol or Kevin Gregg. Early drafters have already spoken and it's Marmol by a wide margin.
• BJ Upton is an almost sure bet to start the season on the DL. Getting hit on the hand the other day just kind of cemented the thinking that was already growing in the Rays's camp.
• Xavier Nady has been named the Yankees starting RF. Nick Swisher heads to the bench for now.
• Ubaldo Jiminez had another strong outing on Monday for the Colorado Rockies.
  

Young Guns: My NFBC March 14 Roster

Here is my team from my recently completed NFBC Satellite draft from the #3 spot- I have decided to name them Young Guns

Catchers: G Soto (5) J Saltamacchia (21)
Corners: Aubrey Huff (7), Casey Kotchman (14), Mark Reynolds (15)
Middle: Jose Reyes (1), Placido Polanco (13), Aaron Hill (20)
Outfeild: BJ Upton (2), Nate McLouth (3), Corey Hart (4), Raul Ibanez (11), Adam Lind (16)
Util: Juan Rivera (26)

CL: J Soria (6), D Wheeler (17), T Walker (27)
SP: J Vazquez (8), J Chamberlain (9), D Price (10), M Scherzer (12), A Sonnastine (18),
S Marshall (19)

Bench Hitters: T Glaus (23), D Fowler (24), M LaPorta (25), R Belliard (30)
Bench Pitchers: J Smoltz (22), J Blevins (28), R Porcello (29)

I went right to my Plan B as I was expecting David Wright to be my first pick. I happily grabbed Reyes and it should be fun to own him on one team this year. My overall strategy going in was
to target speed and power early and i achieved that with my first 4 picks-I would have taken Mourneau in the 2nd or Votto in the 4th but neither was available. 11 1b were off the board when I chose Hart - I had Huff next on my board, waited and I got him in the 7th.

I Grabbed a C early, which I rarely do, but wanted to test out in this draft. I then chose Soria as my closer deciding to try Todd Zola's "Papelbon Plan" on for size. Now I usually wait for C and Closers, so this was a departure from my usual strategy. Last year in my NFBC draft I grabbed a Tier 1 SP in Rd 5-6 and waited longer on Closers. After grabbing A Huff to fill my 1B void it was time to roster some starters. I targeted SP with high K/9, low Whip's on winning teams. Vazquez and Chamberlain fit the description well. I Gambled more than normal with so many young arms - but the upside is very tantalizing.

One pick I regret a little is David Price. The second run of closers had started earlier in the rd and I should have grabbed my second one here. Yes I can say I drafted him, but if he might start the season in AAA or just be a bust. If so I just burned that pick. For the Main Event, I will try to remind myslef that RD 10/12 is when that 2nd Tier of reliable closers will be drafted.
Max Scherzer is another risky pick - but I am not unhappy with where I got him.

At this point in the draft my team was a little short on power. Polanco and Kotchman were drafted next as BA balances since I had reserved myself to the fact that I was going to have to roster Mark Reynolds for his Power. I timed Reynolds (who slid down in this draft) just right as the guy right after me typed "Bastage!" right after I picked him, then grabbed Kevin Kouzmanoff. That made me feel better about rostering this BA killer.

The next stage of the draft filled out my starting roster. I like Marshall and Sonnastine at the back of my rotation. I should get some nice help mid-season from Glaus/Fowler/Laporta and Smoltz will be good when he pitches. Since I didn't need SB's late I also gambled that Aaron Hill can deliver some power at MI. I am hoping for 35-45 saves out of Wheeler/Walker/Blevins.

My projections were: R 1090 HR 270 RBI 1095 SB 170 BA .283
W 83 SV 73 K 1149 ERA 3.68 WHIP 1.25

I think this team can compete, and it looks like I will be streaming two start P as well as W's may be a problem with so many young arms. As you can see by my roster, the 15 team format of the NFBC provides an interesting challenge. Your goal going in is to hit your targets, and I did pretty well in that respect.

This draft was a tuneup for my Main Event draft this Saturday. My goal aside from winning this league was to test out my feel for the marketplace as we get ever closer to D-Day.