NFBC Journal: Weeks 4-5 - Hairston and LaPorta to the rescue

Missed a weekly update - so we'll have to catch up with this week.

Rick Ankiel becomes the second Mugger to go down with an injury, and anyone who saw his head first collision with the center field wall knows that it could have been much worse than a trip to the DL. Colby Rasmus replaced Ankiel in the everyday St. Louis lineup and will do the same for the Muggers.

After a fairly pedestrian Week 4 showing, which saw us slip down in the standings and drop below 90pts overall led to a couple roster moves. We officially ended the Felix Pie experiment. I really thought the change of scenery and an everyday job would help Pie turn the corner. It was a late round gamble on a guy I thought would at worst give me a 15/15 season. Sadly I couldn't wait on him anymore. The picking on the wire are slim, so I took another path and speculated on Baltimore prospect Nolan Reimold for $1. Reimold is simply tearing it up in AAA and the buzz has him coming up with Matt Weiters once June arrives. It is a speculative move, but for a buck, could pay huge dividends.

My other big move after week 4 was to grab Toronto SP Brett Cecil. Injuries created an opportunity for Cecil to stake a claim to a full time rotation spot as he would be getting a look. A two start week made him as nice guy to speculate on. I was able to get him for only $15 and cut Ross Ohlendorf to do so. He rewarded me with two nice games, giving up only 1 run in 14 IP and chipped in a W and 12 K's. He looks like he will stick with Toronto for now. By grabbing him a week early - I saved a ton a FAAB money.

I also was able to grab a just waived Kenji Johjima to replace Jason Jaramillo as my Ryan Doumit replacement. Johjima cost me only $2 and quite frankly, I shouldn't have been able to get him. I can live with him in my lineup til Doumit returns.

Going into week 6 I tabbed only one new Mugger. Desperate for some SB's I grabbed Jerry Hairston Jr. who looks like he will get consistent playing time for the first time all year. He cost me $35 FAAB dollars and I had to cut loose Pedro Alvarez. I doesn't look like Alvarez is coming up anytime soon, so he was the guy to let go.

Also, I gained the services of Matt LaPorta, who got called up by Cleveland. However, Cameron Maybin got sent down to AAA by the Marlins. This was a blow, because I was counting on Maybin for a power/speed boost. He really made the Hairdston aquisition necessary.

Week 5 was a good week for the Muggers. We gained ground in the standings with a balanced attack and have moved up to fourth place in the league. Also, the team that has been holding down first place just lost Manny Ramirez for 2 months. Should bring him back to the pack a bit.
In the Overall Standings, we are back in the Top 100, at #86.

Chris Davis and JJ Hardy both look to be heating up, which is nice to see. Jimmy Rollins is still scuffling and I have to admit, that I shouldn't have talked myself out of Ian Kinsler at pick 8. I also am constantly reminded about my choice of Matt Kemp over Evan Longoria. Kemp has been solid, but Longoria has been the best hitter in fantasy to this point. If I had made those two picks, I'd be in first place today.

But, we are glad to be in contention. That is what you aim for, be close enough to see first place, then keep chipping away. We are there, andI think this offense is just about ready to go on a tear. Also, I think Brett Myers is due for a hot stretch as well and he will further boost what has been the best staff in the league so far this year.

Now if Eric Wedge would only start playing Matt LaPorta everyday, I'd be really happy. Come on Wedgie, I need his power and so do the Indians. Play him already!!!

NFBC Journal: Ryan Doumit's wrist my first bad break.

Well, it was bound to happen, but the news of Ryan Doumit's broken wrist was a real fantasy buzz kill. What was initially reported as a day-to-day injury has now turned into a broken bone in his wrist that will require surgery and shelve my #1 C for up to 8-10 weeks.

It's a tough injury, coming at a time when my team was off to a nice start. Couple in the fact that the pickings at C on the wire are pretty dismal. It puts a real dent in my draft strategy, which was to grab 2 C's earlier than most, giving me a decided advantage at that scarce position.

There was inherent risk involved here, because catchers are prone to injury, but still this injury basically erases whatever advantage was gained by choosing Doumit in the 7th rd. I will have to make up his production elsewhere, and must be careful not to roster a replacement who does more harm than good. Doumit's best attribute was his .300+ average from the C spot, a nice way to bolster your team in that spot and take guys like Rick Ankiel later on. I am reserved to the fact, that anyone I pick up will be lucky to hit .250.

The other thing to consider, is with no DL spots in the NFBC, I will have to carry Doumit in reserve, tying up a roster spot with an unproductive player. I will also have to follow his injury status over the upcoming weeks and if it seems like he will miss more than the initial 8-10 weeks, I may have to cut him outright. Wrist injuries have a way of lingering even after the player returns.

Oh well, time to circle the wagons and go check out which catchers are available in my league.

NFBC Journal: Week 2 - Why is Matt Kemp still batting 7th?

My good friend Don commented on my last post by saying "April is for fools!". A nice pun, and one that is very true when it comes to fantasy. Take a look at the standings right now and you just might think you have actually been transported to an alternate universe with the Marlins, Blue Jays, Mariners and Royals all in first place today. Experienced fantasy players now to take April stats, fast starts and slumps with a grain of salt, but everyone wants to get off to a healthy and fast start.

Week 2 was a good one for the Muggers. A look at the standings for Week 2 show that we won the week with a balanced attack. The weekly win moved us up in the YTD standings from 6th place to 2nd place. The Muggers gained 15.5 points to 101 (out of 150 possible). In the Overall Standings in race for the $100,000 we moved up 130 spots to 51. So while others are lamenting the fact that they started Chien-Ming Wang or Joel Hanrahan last week we can exhale and enjoy a quick start.

Matt Kemp (.391, 8R, 2HR, 9RBI, 3SB) and Nick Markakis again led the way with stellar weeks. Marco Scutaro, my Week 1 FAAB pickup, continued to produce and Kosuke Fukodome, who sent Cameron Maybin to the bench, rewarded me with a solid week while Maybin continued to struggle. On the mound, Chad Billingsley was rock solid again in a 2-0 week (17 k's) and is looking like the Ace that I will need at the top of my rotation. While W's didn't pour in this week, all my starters were decent and I suffered no blowouts. Carlos Villaneuva had the worst week on my staff and likely lost his chance to stake a claim to the closer's job.

A quick look at my team for Week 2 shows that I still have some sleeping bats, mainly Rick Ankiel's and Jimmy Rollins'. Hopefully the latter's home run late in the week will be the beginning of a hot streak for a player I really need to get going to help my SB numbers.

Again, I have avoided the injury bug, which is the goal of any player starting out and with a solid 7 SP's the need to tinker with my roster was small. Villanueva was the guy to drop and I decided to put a speculative $31 bid on his bullpen mate Todd Coffey, which I won. I overspent because apparently I was the only one who think his solid start has moved him up the ladder in MIL. On second thought a $1-$2 bid should have been made here. Justin Masterson and Chris Dickerson were guys I made bids on - but not ones that were competitive. I would have dropped Pedro Alvarez to get one of them, but I don't view either of them as game changers. I will hold onto Alvarez for another week.

As for lineup changes - Kenshin Kawakami goes back in since he draws Washington this week, meaning all my starters are in. On the hitting side, Maybin stays on the pine and I am playing a hunch by starting Felix Pie this week. The O's have 7 games this week, so I'll give Pie the start over Colby Rasmus. Rick Ankiel gets another chance to get it going.

Hopefully we'll get to the top spot next week. Happy 4/20 all my Green pals out there!

NFBC Journal: 2009 NFBC Main Event Roster

Okay time to break down my Main Event Roster pick by pick with the thinking behind each. I was drafting out of the 8th spot.:

Pick 1 - Jimmy Rollins, SS - My thought process here was posted earlier, but basically I wanted to start out with 5 category players in the first 3 picks, passing up the Top 1B and trying to nab either Chris Davis or Joey Votto in Round 4. I chose Rollins over Kinsler, Utley, Teixeira and Howard.

Pick 2 - Matt Kemp, OF - Kemp was a player I was targeting before the draft, and I knew that he would never make it back to me in the 3rd. Pedroia, Soriano and Crawford go before I pick leaving me to decide between Evan Longoria, Kemp, Fielder, Mourneau or J Santana. I think I took the whole minute to decide to stick with my plan and take Kemp. I projected him for 20/20 , but obviously I am hoping for more across the board this year.

Pick 3 - Nick Markakis, OF - I was thinking Alex Rios or Nate McLouth with this pick. Possibly Alexie Ramirez. The guy right before me at #7 gets me back for gifting him Longoria by grabbing J Ellsbury dropping Markakis into my lap. He needed the speed after getting none in the first two Rds. I gladly scoop up Markakis and now set my sights on Rd. 4.

Pick 4 - Chris Davis, 1B/3B - My plan coming in was to grab a 1B this rd - either Davis or Votto. Both were still on the board, but if McLouth somehow made it to me I would grab him. He doesn't so I grab Davis over Votto. This is a pick I might regret, but I like Davis' power potential more than Votto's, although Votto has already gone through a full season while Davis has only 117 AB's to his credit.

Pick 5 - Jonathan Papelbon, CL - I stuck to my plan and drafted 3 of my targeted players and grabbed Markakis at a discount. So I was feeling very good about my start. With conservative projections for Kemp and Markakis I had myself at 90 HR's'/75 Sb's, with considerable upside particularly in the power department. The second phase of my plan was to grab a top Closer, Catcher and Ace. I orginally thought I would wait til the 6th to grab the last of the Top Tier Closers and either grab a C or SP in the 5th, but the Top 4 Catchers all were off the board and Mauer was hurt, so I was going to wait on C's. I was going to implement my own version of the Papelbon Plan, so when the best closer on my board slid to me in the 5th, I gladly grabbed him.

Pick 6 - Chad Billingsley, SP - Jay Bruce was the player I was hoping would slide to me. Once he was picked I started looking at SP and C. Mauer and Ryan Doumit were both available - but I went Sp choosing Billingsley over Roy Oswalt to anchor my rotation. His Whip is a little high for a staff ace, but that is the reasoning behind using the Papelbon Plan.

Pick 7 - Ryan Doumit, C - I gambled that Doumit would make it back to me and he did. I considered Robinson Cano and Aubrey Huff here, but again decided to stick to the plan and grab a Top C. After Doumit the position drops off quite a bit with only Chris Iannetta and Bengi Molina offering offensive upside. After 7 picks, my draft was proceeding as planned and I had even gotten 3 players (Markakis, Papelbon and Billingsley at value prices).

Pick 8 - J.J. Hardy, SS - I was thinking about grabbing another SP here and 3B and 2b were still needed. The choices at 3b and 2B were unispiring as were the OF choices at this point. Joba Chamberlain and Javier Vazquez were guys I was targeting. Vazquez went, but Joba was there. I took a last look at my board and saw one player that had somehow slid, Hardy. The second group of SS went off the board as expected in Rds 6 and 7. Hardy somehow was there. He shouldn't have been. Sometimes you take what the draft gives you and I will gladly slide Hardy and his 20+ HR's into my MI slot.

Pick 9 - Brett Myers, SP - It was time to get another SP, and I gladly tabbed Myers. I am hoping that the reports of his off season workouts are not just "noise", but I love the team and his strikeout ability. The only other guy I thought about was OF Adam Jones, who I would try to slide around the turn. He went in the 10th prior to my pick unfortunatly.

Pick 10 - Brian Fuentes, CL - I had been targeting Lastings Milledge and Adam Jones for this pick. Alas, both got chosen higher than I anticipated. Usually the second group of closers is already gone by the middle of the 10th, but this draft still had many guys on the board and many teams without a Closer yet. Fuentes was easily my Top ranked CL, and his problems in ST and bad back news apparently have scared off other owners. Jose Lopez is the other guy I wanted, and if I could do it again I would've grabbed him as he went two picks later. But, Fuentes gives me another CL on a playoff caliber team. I don't want to have to chase saves this year on the wire and with two of the Top 10 Closers, I should be good to go.

Pick 11 - Mike Napoli, C - Rickie Weeks, Alex Gordon, Placido Polanco and Pablo Sandoval were all considered. I talked myself out of all four to gamble on the power potential of Napoli. If he stays healthy, I should have the best C tandem in the league and a clear advantage at that scarce position.

Pick 12 - Max Scherzer, SP - Must to my dismay all of the above targets fly off the board. I am upset that I don't get one of them and still have open 3B and 2B slots. Looking at my sheets I decide I must now wait on both positions and go for a SP with strikeout potential. I love Scherzr's upside and I'm happy with having rostered him.

Pick 13 - Cameron Maybin, OF - Maybin was my fallback plan after missing out on Milledge and Jones. I decide to grab him now and his power/speed combo fits into my plan in the OF. Tremendous upside with this pick and I like him more than others do this season.

Pick 14 - Johnny Cueto, SP - Another high strikeout SP. Cueto slots into the middle of my rotation and I like his chances of taking a big step forward this season with a much improved Reds team.

Pick 15- Rick Ankiel, OF - I was looking for a power boost with this pick and was glad that another player I liked slid to the point where he was a tremendous value. I can easily absorb his BA, and people are forgeting that after hitting 20 HR's by the All Star break in '08, he battled injuries the rest of the way. 30 HR's seems certain, and there just weren't many of those kind of bats left.

Pick 16- Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B - After passing on other 3B, I decided I could wait no longer. Kouz offers me enough production at 3B that I am glad that I waited. 3B is top heavy this year - but after that you will see little difference between the guys who went 7 rounds earlier and Kouzmanoff. Add in the fact that the Padres will likely look to trade him to a contender and you are looking at even better numbers if he ever gets out of Petco.

Pick 17 -Jair Jurrjens, SP - I have decided that I am going to wait on 2b at this point. I have Hardy at MI, so I can wait. I grab some pitching, and Jurrjens is a great guy to slot into my #5 spot. He has to prove that last year wasn't a fluke and that he can do it again. I am happy to gamble on an Atlanta starter at this point.

Pick 18- Kendry Morales, CI - I needed to address this position and I really likje Morales this year. He isa finally going to get an extended look after hitting over .300 for three straight years at AAA. He had a monster offseason and should be a nice BA booster for my squad. He won't be eligible at the CI spot for two weeks so I will have to fill in until he is.

Pick 19 -Paul Maholm, SP - More pitching with one of my favorite sleepers for this year. Maholm is a former top prospect who made great strides last year for the Bucs. He is their #1 starter this year and brings a nice ERA and WHIP to the back of my rotation.

Pick 20 - Colby Rasmus, OF - I still needed another OF and the picks were slim here. I decided to grab Rasmus with hopes that he can make the team out of camp. I like the speed upside with Rasmus and I don't think that Chris Duncan can hold him off for long. I am rewarded when Rasmus indeed makes the team and looks to be in the starting lineup on Opening Day. He could be a big plus for me this year.

Pick 21 - Dan Wheeler, RP - It is always nice to get three closers if you can, and I like Wheeler to at worst have a share of the job in TB this year.

Pick 22 - Felix Pie, OF - Another gamble here, but Pie will finally be given the chance to deliver on his 20/20 upside as Baltimore will give him eavery chance to play this year. He fits the bill as I was looking to grab as many power/speed OF's as possible.

Pick 23 - Kenshin Kawakami, SP - I saw that Kawakami went much higher in almost every draft out there. Somehow guys fell asleep on him in my league and he was too good to pass up at this point. He is my 7th SP, and he has plenty of upside at this point of the draft.

Pick 24 - Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B - After waiting on 2B-men, I am happy to come away with Cleveland's Cabrera. As an Idians fan, I needed to get at least one of my boys. I think Cabrera has 10/10 upside. He could easily outperform many of the guys taken ahead of him.

Pick 25 - Carlos Villaneuva, RP - He was a speculative saves pick, who will likely be in my starting lineup in Week 1 as he will be filling in for the injured Trevor Hoffman. He has huge upside if Hoffman flops as I think he will. In any case 10 saves seems all but certain.

Pick 26-30 - Dallas McPherson, Matt LaPorta, Jorge De La Rosa and Pedro Alvarez

These picks figure to be the first guys to get dropped from my squad for free agents. I like De La Rosa's K/9 numbers and Alvarez was picked just to bring him into the player pool. I will hang onto LaPorta as long as possible, because I think Hafner might be done and the Tribe will turn to LaPorta sooner than later.

Well, that was my draft. I was happy with my team. Hit all of my targets and luckily avoided injuries. McPherson didn't win the 3B job, so I will need to address that in Week 1. Up next will be Week 1 FAAB bids and Opening Day. Can't wait for the season. Good Luck to all of you with your teams this year.

NFBC Journal: Main Event Roster

Okay - here is the rest of my Main Event roster. I will be doing a more in depth look at the entire draft, breaking it down pick by pick. I'll delve more deeply into the thought process behind each pick as I try to build a team to win not only my individual league - but also the $100,00 overall title. For those interested in just a quick look, here is the rest of my team and what round I picked them at:

C - Ryan Doumit, Pirates (7)
C - Mike Napoli, Angels (11)
1B- Chris Davis, Rangers (4)
2B- Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (24)
SS- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (1)
3B- Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres (16)
MI- J.J. Hardy, Brewers (8)
CI- Kendry Morales, Angels (18)
OF- Matt Kemp, Dodgers (2)
OF- Nick Markakis, Orioles (3)
OF- Cameron Maybin, Marlins (13)
OF- Rick Ankiel, Cardinals (15)
OF- Felix Pie, Orioles (22)
UT- Kosuke Fukodome, Cubs (27)
SP - Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (6)
SP - Brett Myers, Phillies (9)
SP - Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks (12)
SP - Johnny Cueto, Reds (14)
SP - Jair Jurrjens, Braves (17)
SP - Paul Maholm, Pirates (19)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox (5)
RP - Brian Fuentes, Angels (10)
RP - Dan Wheeler, Rays (21)
BN - Colby Rasmus (20), Matt LaPorta (28), Dallas McPherson (26), Pedro Alvarez (30)
Kenshin Kawakami (23), Jorge De La Rosa (29), Carlos Villanueva (25)

NFBC Journal: The Main Event

This past Saturday 390 Fantasy Baseball players converged on 4 cities (Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando) to simultaneously draft their teams for this years upcoming National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Players compete individually within their 15 team leagues and then compete for the Grand Prize of $100,000 against the other 389 entrants.

This was my first year participating in the Main Event, and I would be drafting here in my hometown of Manhattan at the ballroom of the Sheraton on 52nd St. That's right, home cooking before the big event. Needless to say the biggest challenge was tempering my excitement and getting a good night sleep on Friday.

My preparation for this year began early in December, when I was chosen to participate in a Champions Draft for Fantasy Sports magazine. Since then I had also done a 30 rd slow draft, a 20 team mixed league draft and a final NFBC Satellite league on March 14th. I knew the player pool, knew who I was targeting and had constructed for myself a fairly elaborate draft tool/sheet to take in with me.

My sheet had a section devoted to Player Rankings, with Tiers and $ values. Next to that was a list I created which I called my ADP/Position Scarcity Report. Here I again ranked players at various positions, but also incorporated the most recent ADP data available to NFBC drafters. The goal of this list in unison with my Rankings list would be to help me gauge and exploit pockets of value throughout my draft. In the upper section of my sheet I had an up to date Depth Chart for all MLB teams next to a Roster Tracker for the 15 teams in my league.

In addition to my sheet I had 1 magazine, Rotowire's, for quick look ups of any players I needed to do some quick research on. I chose this mag, because it listed it's player write-ups in alphabetical order, a must for quick searching. Also, they had previews of 1,500 players - more than just about any magazine in the marketplace.

I also had another chart, which broke the draft down into 5 sections, looking at 6 rds at a time. Here I listed players using the ADP data available, with color codes to help me at a glance identify which positions might be more heavily targeted at certain points. It would also help me identify certain players that were rising and falling in relation to their pre-draft ADP's. Lastly, I had a clipboard, with my own personal Roster Worksheet. After picking a player, you enter his name and projections and work toward you pre draft goals/targets in the 5x5 categories.

I arrived early, and entered the draft room. We were in the ballroom at the Sheraton and the room was already buzzing with excitement. Eight leagues would be drafting here in NY, with another 18 happening simultaneously in the other 3 cities. Las Vegas had the largest room, with 11 teams I believe, Chicago had 4 leagues, Orlando 2 and the NFBC even added 1 Online league this year to the Main Event. Everything was very well organized and our New York coordinator Tom Kessinich had everything under control. I found my U-shaped draft table, and took my spot at #8, smack dab in the middle. I introduced myself to the guys sitting to my right and left and proceeded to unpack my stuff and lay it all out. Needless to say, my elaborate set-up garnered more than a few looks from my league mates. Just as planned. Yes I was new to the competition, but I was ready to rumble! I had made the decision early on to forgo my laptop, mainly because the NFBC doesn't allow plug-ins. But, I was still surprised that I didn't see more computers. It would seem that the NFBC has more Old-school pen and paper guys than I was anticipating.

Okay, everything was ready to go. I started going over my strategy and somewhat scripted attack plan for the first few rounds. At #8, I had a good idea of who would be available to me and that initial pick would go a long way to determining who I chose in the next few rds. In my mind my choices would be Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira and Ian Kinsler. There are many different plans of attack in the NFBC - and where you pick in the first rd helps narrow it down.

My goal was to draft 5 category guys with my first 3 picks. So for my plan, Teixeira was out. That left Rollins and Kinsler. SS and 2B. I really liked them both. They both brought power and speed to the table at scarce positions. Kinsler slightly more power and Rollins more speed.
For me the deciding factor was reliability and injury risk. Who was more reliable and less of an injury risk. That led me to stick to my pre-draft plan and select Jimmy Rollins as my first pick in this years draft. Now I'd just have to get the rest of the guys I wanted to make it all work.